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  #1  
Old 12-19-2012, 09:30 AM
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Default Free Agent Bargains

While it is never popular, buying low is proven to be the more successful way to treat the free agent market. There are of course times when teams pay top dollar for the biggest name on the market and it works out (Julius Peppers), but there are far more instances where they end up overpaying for the amount of production they receive (Mario Williams, Albert Haynesworth).

The reason for this is that top flight free agents are top flight free agents by virtue of the fact that they are at the top of their game and in their prime when they hit the FA market. But the problem with paying them at that moment is that it's unlikely they will maintain the high level of play that got them to that point. Regression to the mean in terms of production is natural and part of the game- but it becomes a problem when you're paying someone at a level consistent with all-pro production.

With that said, here are names that I like that shouldn't break the bank at positions we will or may end up needing to address:

OT Gosder Cherilus, Lions: Cherlius' name is bound to get lost in this rich FA tackle class, but some team is going to get great value by signing him. He's never lived up to his first round selection, but lately (last couple of seasons) he's consistently been an average to above average RT. PFF ranks him 23rd out of about 70 tackles graded in terms of pass protection. That's not sterling, but it's well above average and would definitely be a big step up from Clary while not requiring us to overspend at a non-premium position.

OG Matt Slauson, Jets: I feel truly bad for Slauson. He's been a pretty decent player this year, but has gotten his play bashed by people looking for excuses for Mark Sanchez. On top of that, the team has done everything in their power to give his job away to the inferior Vlad Ducasse, and he's gotten a lot of bad pub over the Cushing injury. But underneath all that there is a tough, blue collar guard who is having his best season. He isn't spectacular in any area but he's capable in just about every facet and is definitely better than Green and Hadnot. If the Jets want to downgrade to Ducasse, I would thank them for Slauson.

CB Derek Cox, Jaguars: Cox is a little bit more risk/reward based than the two previously mentioned. He has all the natural ability you could want in a cornerback (height, speed, quickness, instincts), but has struggled to stay healthy. For that reason, he may end up being a bargain on the market. I think he'd definitely be worth the risk for us and could turn out to be a much better player than he's looked in Jacksonville behind our better front 7. Cox was one of the many small school selections (William & Mary) of Gene Smith, who figures to get fired at the end the season. So a new FO won't feel any loyalty that might compel them to resign him.

OLB Victor Butler, Cowboys: Because he plays behind DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer, Butler hasn't seen the field much this season. But he's been productive in his chances, and those limited opportunities that have stymied his production may also reduce his cost. He's not a guy I would look at to start, but could be a valuable cog in a rotation. I believe that, as a pass rusher, he would be a depth upgrade over Barnes, English, and Johnson.

TE Travis Bec***, Giants: Bec*** is only now beginning to play again after tearing his ACL in the superbowl. He was just starting to justify his 3rd round draft selection when he got hurt. He's not a #1 TE, but I think his tools could make him a valuable utility H-back type in the mold of Delaney Walker in San Francisco. And I'm guessing he'll be dirt cheap after having no opportunity to show anything behind Martellus Bennett, even now that he is active.

WR Ramses Barden, Giants: It was always know that Barden was going to be a project player coming out of Cal Poly. But the project has taken longer than what the Giants had hoped, and I am guessing they let him go. His lack of production means he will probably be available at the vet minimum, and Rivers does seem to have a good rapport with receivers in Barden's mold. To me, he's practically a zero risk signing that could potentially yield big results.
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Old 12-19-2012, 11:15 AM
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Some good players on there and good observations too. I think it is important that we dont sign players with and extensive injury report. So would leave out D.Cox and Beachum.
My favorite on the list is Barden and Butler.

If I were to look into other players to extend the list i would recommend.

Larod Stephens-Howling RB - Guess who he reminds me off.
Pat Devlin QB - Developmental QB.
Johnny Knox WR - Might fall into the injury prone category.
Louis Murphy WR - Very good route runner has some wheels too. Defintely due for more production than the last couple of years
King Dunlap OT - Stands at 6'9 may get a right tackle look the same way as Henderson got it in TC
Rashad Butler OT - Started all games at OT for the Texans 2010.
Terrance Knighton NT - Pot roast, such a dominant force when his weight is under control. May not gather that much interest on the open market
Leodis McKelvin CB - Return man aswell as good outside depth at CB maybe even a starter given our situation at CB
Darius Butler CB - Former second round pick from NE, has huge athletic ability and is ideal sized for an outside corner.

Som other corners that are interesting in this market that I've look at because tbh its one of our biggest needs. They might be out of the "bargain" range but are nonetheless very interesting: Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Phillip Adams (RFA), Sam Shields(RFA), Captain Munnerlyn, Cary Williams and last but not least Sean Smith.
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Offseason to do list.
Don't promote John Spanos
Hire New GM
Hire New HC
Extend Butler
Extend Alexander
Bring back on 1 year deals: Jammer, Franklin, D.Williams, Tommie Harris.
Hometown discount: Phillips, Cason.
Beat the market: Haslam, Vasquez, V.Martin.

Last edited by Gotcharged; 12-19-2012 at 11:20 AM..
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Old 12-19-2012, 12:07 PM
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Sign me up for cherilus and mckelvin. Wanted both coming out of draft.
If we were able to snag both we could got for pass rusher in first comfortably.
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Old 12-19-2012, 03:11 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SDC-SBV-1D View Post
Sign me up for cherilus and mckelvin. Wanted both coming out of draft.
If we were able to snag both we could got for pass rusher in first comfortably.
If Andre Smith gets locked up by the Bengals, Cherilus would most certainly be a nice consolation prize. I also agree with McKelvin. Love his return ability and he would be excellent depth as a #3 or 4 corner. Still very young.
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Old 12-19-2012, 05:26 PM
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Cox will certainly not be a bargain..... He's great when he plays, could get in that 6-7 million range.
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Old 12-19-2012, 06:32 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JammerHammer23 View Post
Cox will certainly not be a bargain..... He's great when he plays, could get in that 6-7 million range.
It's true that he won't be cheap, but the missed time should allow a team to get a 7-8M caliber corner for about 6M. I any case, I think he's a realistic option as long as he's our most expensive acquisition.
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Old 12-20-2012, 12:26 AM
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Originally Posted by ClintLB8 View Post
If Andre Smith gets locked up by the Bengals, Cherilus would most certainly be a nice consolation prize. I also agree with McKelvin. Love his return ability and he would be excellent depth as a #3 or 4 corner. Still very young.
McKelvin for depth?
With our CB corps right now, he could easily be #1, especially if we're moving Jammer to safety.

I think Weddle and Jammer will have our Safeties position fixed for the next 2 seasons or so.
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Old 12-20-2012, 06:16 AM
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McKelvin for depth?
With our CB corps right now, he could easily be #1, especially if we're moving Jammer to safety.

I think Weddle and Jammer will have our Safeties position fixed for the next 2 seasons or so.
Actually no, he wouldn't. McKelvin got burned pretty regularly as a starter. So you don't really want him as more than a depth/ST guy.
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Old 12-20-2012, 08:10 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Libbie View Post
McKelvin for depth?
With our CB corps right now, he could easily be #1, especially if we're moving Jammer to safety.

I think Weddle and Jammer will have our Safeties position fixed for the next 2 seasons or so.
McKelvin would be mostly a return specialist. He does not need to be a starting corner. If he continued to improve then maybe eventually but for now.. He wold be signed strictly for return ability and for depth purposes in the secondary.
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Old 12-20-2012, 02:08 PM
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Michael Johnson - DE best bargin in the draft and i am made that they will not let me on the Rams or Cowboys board because ppl keep sending me stupid comments
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