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Old 12-24-2018, 09:48 PM
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Default Analytics Revolution in the NFL

Thought this was interesting and wanted to share. I recommend reading the entire article.
https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2018/1...ics-revolution

Quote:
He became interested in how teams win games when he was in college and became convinced of two things, both of which would foreshadow the modern NFL. The first is that an offensive emphasis on passing correlated to wins. The second is more complicated than it sounds. Sharp found that third-down efficiency, long the obsession of announcers and old-school coaches, was not the key to an effective offense. He found that it was better for teams to scrap third downs entirely and move the chains by gaining the necessary yardage on first and second down.
Quote:
“I don’t think their strategy was to avoid third down, but I think there was just more aggressiveness. It’s about calling efficient plays,” Sharp said. “You always hear TV announcers, it drives me crazy, they’ll say on second-and-short, ‘Good time to take a shot down the field,’ and there’s a lot of risk in that. The interception rate is higher than it is on a regular play, the success rate converting it is low. Run a play that gets you the first down and take a shot on the next first-and-10 if you want.”
Quote:
There is some evidence that teams are coming around to Sharp’s ideas about early-down aggressiveness. The leaguewide yards per attempt average on first down is 7.4, up from 7.1 in 2017. On second down, it’s 7, up from 6.5 last year. On third down, yards per attempt has actually dipped slightly, from 6.2 in 2017 to 6.0 now. This season, the Rams and Chiefs lead the NFL in first downs, yet are 26th and 31st, respectively, in third-down attempts. Sharp pointed to the Chargers as a team that did not pass enough on first down and did not call efficient plays on early downs last year. This season, Philip Rivers’s yards per attempt average on first down has climbed from 8.1 to 9.7; the 11-3 Chargers are enjoying their best season in years.
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Old 12-24-2018, 10:38 PM
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Throw early and hope to get touchdowns that lead to having sizable leads, and run the ball late in the game when the other team is down. Some teams or coaches want to do this.

InB4 a user can make spam reply.
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Old 12-25-2018, 10:11 AM
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Great article.... the part about defensive lineman having to run more (and therefore get tired quicker) because the team is running plays to the opposite side of the field is hilarious.
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Old 12-25-2018, 10:17 AM
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I like analytics, but you need to be careful about their influence on decision making.
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Old 12-25-2018, 10:22 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by frozendisc View Post
I like analytics, but you need to be careful about their influence on decision making.
Well like the article says; in baseball there are lots of games, so the law of averages will work to your favor a lot more, in football there are only 16 games, and a lot more factors in each play, so it's not as clear cut...

The whole idea of doing a 2 point conversion earlier in a game as opposed to late in the game is jaw dropping... but when you actually think about it, it makes sense... why not go for 2 earlier in the game? If you fail, you can still go for two the next TD and be at the same point total as if you went for 1 both times. How hard is it to stop a team from going 2 yards, not once, but twice?
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Old 12-25-2018, 10:29 AM
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Wait a minute.
You blasted me Xenos for
bringing up Warren Sharp
during PreSeason.
The pass sets up the run.

This all goes to Oline effectiveness.
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Old 12-25-2018, 10:35 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by woodeye2000 View Post
Wait a minute.
You blasted me Xenos for
bringing up Warren Sharp
during PreSeason.
The pass sets up the run.

This all goes to Oline effectiveness.
The article talks about how Bobby Wagner is ranked ahead of Aaron Donald, because when teams know they are going to put just one man on Donald, they are going to pass it quickly. The Bears averaged 1.5 seconds to get rid of the ball on plays where Donald would be single-teamed.... this makes Donald a non factor.

So Oline effectiveness is one fine, but I think in the end... having a great QB that can make, not only great decisions, but quick decisions.... is key.
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Old 12-25-2018, 10:51 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spaniard View Post
Well like the article says; in baseball there are lots of games, so the law of averages will work to your favor a lot more, in football there are only 16 games, and a lot more factors in each play, so it's not as clear cut...

The whole idea of doing a 2 point conversion earlier in a game as opposed to late in the game is jaw dropping... but when you actually think about it, it makes sense... why not go for 2 earlier in the game? If you fail, you can still go for two the next TD and be at the same point total as if you went for 1 both times. How hard is it to stop a team from going 2 yards, not once, but twice?
There is so much info generated by analytics, it can get daunting in how to use it properly. Most coaches I have been around like the information, but do not let it drive the decision. CJ believes there are nights that the puck just loves certain player, and that player needs to be on the ice more, regardless of their analytics profile.
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Old 12-25-2018, 06:27 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by frozendisc View Post
There is so much info generated by analytics, it can get daunting in how to use it properly. Most coaches I have been around like the information, but do not let it drive the decision. CJ believes there are nights that the puck just loves certain player, and that player needs to be on the ice more, regardless of their analytics profile.
I don’t know why you insist on polluting threads with hockey takes.
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Old 12-25-2018, 09:33 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Moekid View Post
I don’t know why you insist on polluting threads with hockey takes.
While I don't agree with your characterization, I do wonder why my viewpoint would bother you.....
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