Race for the Draft

[chargermouse]

Originally Posted by Time4aRing

1. Kansas City Chiefs - 2-11 (.485 SOS) Didn't matter much
2. Jacksonville Jaguars - 2-11 (.550 SOS) Didn't matter really
3. Oakland Raiders - 3-10 (.497 SOS) Didn't matter much
4. Philadelphia Eagles - 4-9 (.497 SOS) Lost
5. Carolina Panthers - 4-9 (.550 SOS) Winning
6. Tennessee Titans - 4-9 (.550 SOS) Root for the Titans
7. Detroit Lions - 4-9 (.556 SOS) Either DET or ARI wins,
8. Arizona Cardinals - 4-9 (.565 SOS) we move up one draft spot (SOS)
9. San Diego Chargers - 5-8 (.479 SOS) Losing
10. Cleveland Browns - 5-8 (.485 SOS) Lost
11. Buffalo Bills - 5-8 (.497 SOS) Losing
12. Miami Dolphins - 5-8 (.527 SOS) won

If the Titans win, and Car holds its lead over us, we could move up to 6. Cleveland might also pass us, because SOS is so close. But we would have a weaker SOS than Detroit or Arizona, than Tennessee, and than Carolina.

Thanks for the breakdown T4R! Quick question. If we lose out and end up with the same record as Oakland, who gets the higher pick?

[Time4aRing]

Originally Posted by chargermouse

Thanks for the breakdown T4R! Quick question. If we lose out and end up with the same record as Oakland, who gets the higher pick?

We would, we play OAK final week, and that OAK win would give us a better pick.

This is what we may be looking at best case scenario.
1. Kansas City Chiefs - 2-12 (.485 SOS) Still doesn't matter
2. Jacksonville Jaguars - 2-12 (.550 SOS) Still doesn't matter
3. Oakland Raiders - 4-10 (.497 SOS) Face Car
4. Philadelphia Eagles - 4-10 (.497 SOS) Face Was
5. Detroit Lions - 4-10 (.556 SOS) Face Falcons
6. San Diego Chargers - 5-9 (.479 SOS) Face NYJ
7. Cleveland Browns - 5-9 (.485 SOS) Face Den
8. Buffalo Bills - 5-9 (.497 SOS) Face MIA
9. Carolina Panthers - 5-9 (.550 SOS) Face Oak
10. Tennessee Titans - 5-9 (.550 SOS) Face GB
11. Arizona Cardinals - 5-9 (.565 SOS) Face Bears
12. Miami Dolphins - 6-8 (.527 SOS) Face Buf

We would then hope for a Raiders/Eagles/DET win. CLE's SOS would raise more than ours would. We would also need Buff to win as their SOS would lower. TENN/ARI's SOS will both rise.

[chargersfan85]

Originally Posted by Time4aRing

Right now, the SoS is leaning towards us getting the better pick. However, calculating the SOS is inaccurate when there are still games that haven't been played. Right now we have a 20 point advantage, but that could change.

yeah also it is a pain to calculate when you have to do it for more than one team trust me I do it every year

[Time4aRing]

Originally Posted by chargersfan85

yeah also it is a pain to calculate when you have to do it for more than one team trust me I do it every year

I applaud your efforts sir.

Best Case scenario, we could end up with the 3rd pick overall.
Realistically, our range right now is pick 4 thru 8, based off of statistics.
Worst Case scenario we could finish in the teens.

I looked back to 2002, every year there has been at least two 4 win teams. This year there are 3 left. Odds are, one or two of them will lose out. I think we will most likely end up picking somewhere between 5th overall and 9th overall.

[SDfootball61]

Originally Posted by Time4aRing

I applaud your efforts sir.

Best Case scenario, we could end up with the 3rd pick overall.
Realistically, our range right now is pick 4 thru 8, based off of statistics.
Worst Case scenario we could finish in the teens.

I looked back to 2002, every year there has been at least two 4 win teams. This year there are 3 left. Odds are, one or two of them will lose out. I think we will most likely end up picking somewhere between 5th overall and 9th overall.

The good news is that Oakland has a very winable game vs. Carolina next week.

I'd say we pick right in that rage of 5-8. Its going to be interesting, because despite our showing today, the last 2 games for us are absolutely winable games.

[chargersfan85]

I said this 2 weeks ago and I am sticking to it the lowest I want is 6 nothing lower than that

[LI Bolt]

Originally Posted by SDfootball61

The good news is that Oakland has a very winable game vs. Carolina next week.

I'd say we pick right in that rage of 5-8. Its going to be interesting, because despite our showing today, the last 2 games for us are absolutely winable games.

Not to mention they have a very winnable game in week 17.

I'm starting to think of Star at 3 if it all breaks right

[The Stig]

Originally Posted by LI Bolt

Not to mention they have a very winnable game in week 17.

I'm starting to think of Star at 3 if it all breaks right

Luxury pick. If we don't help Philip, we don't win.

[chargersfan85]

As of right now we have the 7th pick but Tennessee is at 6 with having not played yet. I believe that if Tennessee wins that we will move to that 6th spot unless it drastically changes the SOS. Which could happen

[Time4aRing]

If we get the third pick, it will break over a decade of statistics. It is highly improbable. Besides Star will be there to be had if we draft at 6 IMO.