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  #111  
Old 12-06-2012, 02:25 PM
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Amazingly the the bottom 4 teams last year (STL, IND, MIN, TB) are all still in playoff contention...and have better records than us. DEN and CIN finished as the 2nd and 3rd worst teams in 2010 but made the playoffs in 2011. KC finished in the bottom 5 in 2009 and won the division in 2010. The bottom line is that fortunes can change quickly in the NFL.

Right now our O line is so bad that opposing defenses might just outscore our offense. Losing out might earn us the #3 pick, which is the ideal scenario IMO. In that scenario, I'd consider trading down to #5 and picking up an extra 2nd rounder. The #5 pick (Jammer, LT, Seau, Billy Ray Smith) has been very good to us.
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Free agency: L. Warford (OG), K. Short (DT), A. Boldin (WR)
Draft: *trade down in 1st round and pick up a mid 2nd rounder
1*) Ramczyk, LT 2) J. Evans, SS 2*) C. Sutton, WR 3) K. Beckwith, ILB 4) Godchaux, DT 5) Kazee, CB
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  #112  
Old 12-06-2012, 02:29 PM
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Not really. What if he's reaching because he believes that is the BPA.
Otherwise I cannot explain the Mouton choice.

I view Buster as a miss. Most likely had Weddle rated lower than Buster.
Of course it didn't work out but that goes to a different argument.

I do agree that BPA at position of need is or should be BPA at positions of need.
Ah yes... our age old debate over the definition of "reach."
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  #113  
Old 12-06-2012, 02:35 PM
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Amazingly the the bottom 4 teams last year (STL, IND, MIN, TB) are all still in playoff contention...and have better records than us. DEN and CIN finished as the 2nd and 3rd worst teams in 2010 but made the playoffs in 2011. KC finished in the bottom 5 in 2009 and won the division in 2010. The bottom line is that fortunes can change quickly in the NFL.

Right now our O line is so bad that opposing defenses might just outscore our offense. Losing out might earn us the #3 pick, which is the ideal scenario IMO. In that scenario, I'd consider trading down to #5 and picking up an extra 2nd rounder. The #5 pick (Jammer, LT, Seau, Billy Ray Smith) has been very good to us.
I know this isn't your main point, but by way of reference Minnesota traded down from pick 3 to 4 and got a 5th and a 7th. Tampa went from pick 5 to 7 and got a 4th. I kind of doubt we'd get a 2nd for moving down from 3 to 5.
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  #114  
Old 12-06-2012, 02:39 PM
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Ah yes... our age old debate over the definition of "reach."
That will never be settled until we know the draft boards of the 31 other teams. In other words will never happen.

Since you don't buy my definition of reach I like to hear your definition. Perhaps there is no such thing?
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  #115  
Old 12-06-2012, 02:41 PM
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I know this isn't your main point, but by way of reference Minnesota traded down from pick 3 to 4 and got a 5th and a 7th. Tampa went from pick 5 to 7 and got a 4th. I kind of doubt we'd get a 2nd for moving down from 3 to 5.
I agree, we would probably have to trade into the teens, which may or may not be the best move. You never know who is going to drop and it would probably put us in prime position to take the best G in the draft. Take the G, grab a C or RT with our 2nd pick, hope Gaither stays healthy.

Just a thought.
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  #116  
Old 12-06-2012, 03:01 PM
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That will never be settled until we know the draft boards of the 31 other teams. In other words will never happen.

Since you don't buy my definition of reach I like to hear your definition. Perhaps there is no such thing?
Well, strictly speaking, the defition of a "reach" is a draft choice where a drafting entity takes a player considerably higher than where that player deserved to go (how much higher is debatable).

But where you and I disagree is that you tend to treat consensus media rankings as the standard whereby to judge what is and isn't a reach, whereas I will only call a pick a reach when I personally feel that the play was chosen too high.

Because it's completely subjective, the only standard I use is my own opinion. Using the media's opinions is fine too, but I don't think you can logically prove that they are the ultimate standard.
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  #117  
Old 12-06-2012, 03:03 PM
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I agree, we would probably have to trade into the teens, which may or may not be the best move. You never know who is going to drop and it would probably put us in prime position to take the best G in the draft. Take the G, grab a C or RT with our 2nd pick, hope Gaither stays healthy.

Just a thought.
If I'm trading down, I want to make sure that there are still at least as many players on the board I like as spots I'm moving down. So if I'm our GM, I only trade back 5 spots if I like 5 of the players that are left.
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  #118  
Old 12-06-2012, 03:09 PM
charger1_sj charger1_sj is offline
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Well, strictly speaking, the defition of a "reach" is a draft choice where a drafting entity takes a player considerably higher than where that player deserved to go (how much higher is debatable).

But where you and I disagree is that you tend to treat consensus media rankings as the standard whereby to judge what is and isn't a reach, whereas I will only call a pick a reach when I personally feel that the play was chosen too high.

Because it's completely subjective, the only standard I use is my own opinion. Using the media's opinions is fine too, but I don't think you can logically prove that they are the ultimate standard.
So we disagree on who makes the evaluation?

Sorry Kemp, although I hold you in high regards to your player evaluation skills I'll take my method over your opinion. Simple reason many more qualified eyes and that's not saying that you're not qualified.

So in your opinion was Mouton a reach? Inquiring minds want to know.
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  #119  
Old 12-06-2012, 03:12 PM
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If I'm trading down, I want to make sure that there are still at least as many players on the board I like as spots I'm moving down. So if I'm our GM, I only trade back 5 spots if I like 5 of the players that are left.
I would play it much more loosely, but I prefer the Billicheat method of drafting. Since the draft is a lottery I want to have as many chances to win as possible. I'd only take a player if I really liked him AND I couldn't find a good deal.

Getting a good deal is a lottery unto itself though.
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  #120  
Old 12-06-2012, 03:14 PM
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So we disagree on who makes the evaluation?

Sorry Kemp, although I hold you in high regards to your player evaluation skills I'll take my method over your opinion. Simple reason many more qualified eyes and that's not saying that you're not qualified.

So in your opinion was Mouton a reach? Inquiring minds want to know.
How often do you have to take that "Mouton was a reach" drum you've been beating so fervently in for repairs?
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