Go Back   The Official Los Angeles Chargers Forum > Chargers Talk > Draft Talk
Register FAQ Members List Mark Forums Read

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #71  
Old 12-06-2012, 10:06 AM
Kemp17's Avatar
Kemp17 Kemp17 is offline
Green text is the worst
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Bitterroot Valley
Posts: 25,579
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by ShockTreatment View Post
The problem with trading down is that you are making several assumptions:

A) That talent you want will be available in later rounds

B) That no talent exists currently that you want

Both of the above cannot be true. If there is no talent you want at a higher pick, why would there be talent you want at a lower pick? If your guy is "taken", it's next man up on your board, but don't trade down.

The draft is unpredictable. You have no idea who will be available in later rounds if you trade down, BUT you DO KNOW who is available at the time you are picking. Make sure you are surrounded with good talent evaluators, and hit with the picks you are given. I'm actually more of an advocate for trading up a few spots to get a guy you really like than trading down.

Any GM should be very cautious about trading out of the top 10 now that the rookie salary cap is what it is.
This is an oversimplification. If you have a high pick and all of the blue chip players at impact positions are off the board, but there are still several guys you like that are left, you can trade down a certain measure and reasonably assume that you will still get someone you like. If you feel that you're a position to get a player that you want and still get extra value, it makes sense to do it. Otherwise, you're drafting Tyson Alualu at #10.

Example. If we're picking at 8 and Joeckel, Lotulelei, Werner, Milliner, and Moore are all gone, but Fisher, Lewan, Warmack, Mingo, Te'o, and Banks are still there, you could move down into the teens and reasonably assume that one of those players would be left for you to pick.

It's trading up that has hurt this team, not the opposite.
__________________

To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.
Reply With Quote
  #72  
Old 12-06-2012, 10:08 AM
Kemp17's Avatar
Kemp17 Kemp17 is offline
Green text is the worst
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Bitterroot Valley
Posts: 25,579
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by AK46um View Post
How about retaining the 1st round pick then trading up our subsquent picks (even a 2014 pick) for another 1st rounder (mid-late) thus potentially giving us access to 2 top 20 guys. If that happens the first thought I have is locking up Mathews at RT then drafting BPA OT for LT depth. (because Joeckel would be gone). I'm sure there are other first round Duos like say Lotulelei/OT, Lotulelei/CB, OT/OLB, ect.
I'm not a fan of mortgaging the future for picks in the present. You lose value over the long haul. And last year would have been the year to do that if you were going to. The talent was better overall.
__________________

To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.
Reply With Quote
  #73  
Old 12-06-2012, 10:11 AM
WootMonkey WootMonkey is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: May 2010
Location: North Park
Posts: 14,067
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kemp17 View Post
This is an oversimplification. If you have a high pick and all of the blue chip players at impact positions are off the board, but there are still several guys you like that are left, you can trade down a certain measure and reasonably assume that you will still get someone you like. If you feel that you're a position to get a player that you want and still get extra value, it makes sense to do it. Otherwise, you're drafting Tyson Alualu at #10.

Example. If we're picking at 8 and Joeckel, Lotulelei, Werner, Milliner, and Moore are all gone, but Fisher, Lewan, Warmack, Mingo, Te'o, and Banks are still there, you could move down into the teens and reasonably assume that one of those players would be left for you to pick.

It's trading up that has hurt this team, not the opposite.
^This^

If you are sitting there with all the players Kemp named off the board, but say someone wants Geno Smith or Keenan Allen who are still on the board and they are willing to pay to move up a couple spots to get him...then there is no reason to sit there and take a player you have ranked the same as multiple players you have ranked a couple slots down.

The danger would be to move down too far.
Reply With Quote
  #74  
Old 12-06-2012, 10:12 AM
WootMonkey WootMonkey is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: May 2010
Location: North Park
Posts: 14,067
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kemp17 View Post
I'm not a fan of mortgaging the future for picks in the present. You lose value over the long haul. And last year would have been the year to do that if you were going to. The talent was better overall.
Totally agree, trading up for Mathews is a prime example. Dude is not AP.
Reply With Quote
  #75  
Old 12-06-2012, 10:26 AM
ShockTreatment's Avatar
ShockTreatment ShockTreatment is offline
Shock and Awe
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: Santee
Posts: 4,533
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kemp17 View Post
This is an oversimplification. If you have a high pick and all of the blue chip players at impact positions are off the board, but there are still several guys you like that are left, you can trade down a certain measure and reasonably assume that you will still get someone you like. If you feel that you're a position to get a player that you want and still get extra value, it makes sense to do it. Otherwise, you're drafting Tyson Alualu at #10.

Example. If we're picking at 8 and Joeckel, Lotulelei, Werner, Milliner, and Moore are all gone, but Fisher, Lewan, Warmack, Mingo, Te'o, and Banks are still there, you could move down into the teens and reasonably assume that one of those players would be left for you to pick.

It's trading up that has hurt this team, not the opposite.
Then what do you do when a run on tackles happens and your 2nd tier tackles are now gone in the teens? Your in the exact same situation you were earlier, only your talent has been degraded severely.

To answer your question: I'll take Fisher. But I'd be very tempted to take Warmack - Guard or not.

The latter is not true. Off the top of my head, Weddle, Butler, and Cam Thomas have all been the result of tradeups. Mathews will be a pro bowler if he ever gets a line to run behind.
__________________
ShockTreatment's Final Mock 4-28-16
1. Jalen Ramsey - DB - Florida State
2. Kenny Clark - DT - UCLA
3. Christian Westerman - OG/C - Arizona State
4. Dean Lowry - 34DE - Northwestern
5. Robby Anderson - WR - Temple
6a. Jatavis Brown - ILB - Akron
6b. Victor Ochi - 34OLB - Stony Brook
7. Darrell Greene - OG - San Diego State

Last edited by ShockTreatment; 12-06-2012 at 10:33 AM..
Reply With Quote
  #76  
Old 12-06-2012, 10:36 AM
WootMonkey WootMonkey is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: May 2010
Location: North Park
Posts: 14,067
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by ShockTreatment View Post
Then what do you do when a run on tackles happens and your 2nd tier tackles are now gone in the teens? Your in the exact same situation you were earlier, only your talent has been degraded severely.

To answer your question: I'll take Fisher.

The latter is not true. Off the top of my head, Weddle, Butler, and Cam Thomas have all been the result of tradeups. Mathews will be a pro bowler if he ever gets a line to run behind.
We could have kept the 2nd round pick if we had passed on Buster and just taken Weddle in the first.

Butler is great, but the 49ers took Bowman in the spot we traded from. So we could have stood pat kept the other picks and had a chance for Butler to drop and if he didn't Bowman is a "decent" consolation prize.

Cam Thomas was a 5th round pick, doubt we gave up anything serious down there.

And Mathews...that's just hard to say with how he is used, but fact is we gave up a lot for a back we only ran 11 times last week up by 13.
Reply With Quote
  #77  
Old 12-06-2012, 10:38 AM
ShockTreatment's Avatar
ShockTreatment ShockTreatment is offline
Shock and Awe
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: Santee
Posts: 4,533
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by WootMonkey View Post
^This^

If you are sitting there with all the players Kemp named off the board, but say someone wants Geno Smith or Keenan Allen who are still on the board and they are willing to pay to move up a couple spots to get him...then there is no reason to sit there and take a player you have ranked the same as multiple players you have ranked a couple slots down.

The danger would be to move down too far.
That's not how the draft works. That's how the draft works in draftnik land.

The professionals don't give a crap about how the public rates their draft selections. They care about: "Is this football player going to contribute to our team". If the answer is yes: "What capacity is this football player going to contribute". "Do we see them as a starter?" "All-pro?" etc. "Are there other players who do it better or as good?"

Based on those evaluations, they rank players on a board from 1-50+ and select based on a combination of BPA and need. There is no board in their draft room that says: "This player is a 2nd round player, never select him higher".
__________________
ShockTreatment's Final Mock 4-28-16
1. Jalen Ramsey - DB - Florida State
2. Kenny Clark - DT - UCLA
3. Christian Westerman - OG/C - Arizona State
4. Dean Lowry - 34DE - Northwestern
5. Robby Anderson - WR - Temple
6a. Jatavis Brown - ILB - Akron
6b. Victor Ochi - 34OLB - Stony Brook
7. Darrell Greene - OG - San Diego State
Reply With Quote
  #78  
Old 12-06-2012, 10:39 AM
Kemp17's Avatar
Kemp17 Kemp17 is offline
Green text is the worst
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Bitterroot Valley
Posts: 25,579
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by ShockTreatment View Post
Then what do you do when a run on tackles happens and your 2nd tier tackles are now gone in the teens? Your in the exact same situation you were earlier, only your talent has been degraded severely.

To answer your question: I'll take Fisher.

The latter is not true. Off the top of my head, Weddle, Butler, and Cam Thomas have all been the result of tradeups. Mathews will be a pro bowler if he ever gets a line to run behind.
You take a player at a different position. It's not always a good thing to trade down, but like Woot said, if you have several players on the board that you like roughly the same, you can move down and still get one while accruing value. So it's a situational thing... there's no hard and fast rule. Notice I'm sayingt that we should move down. I don't actually want to. I think this team needs some top-notch game changers. But there's no guarantee any of those true studs will be there when we select. So I'm not going to say "never move down" because that oversimplifies it. There are instances where it's the right thing to do.

And maybe Fisher will really be worth that high pick. But that misses the point. Forget the specific players themselves- they were just mentioned by way of an example. The example was just meant to illustrate a scenario where a team's top choices are all gone while several of their 2nd tier options remain (enough so that they can move back while still be assured at least one fo them).

That is true. And it's true because I said that trade ups have hurt this team (as in "some"), rather than saying every trade up we ever have executed has hurt this team. We went far too long without 2nd round picks and it killed our depth. Hester is a great example, and Mathews- as of right now- was a terrible decision. Some fans think he may be good in the future in the right situation (not saying he won't), but thinking that that may happen in no way makes him worth what we gave up for him. I was actually royally pissed when we traded up in 2010 because I was worried that investing that much in an injury-prone running back was unwise. I've been optimistic about the player since then because that's just how I am- I'd rather be wrong about that decision and have Mathews be awesome. But so far it seems my fears were justified.
__________________

To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.
Reply With Quote
  #79  
Old 12-06-2012, 10:42 AM
WootMonkey WootMonkey is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: May 2010
Location: North Park
Posts: 14,067
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by ShockTreatment View Post
That's not how the draft works. That's how the draft works in draftnik land.

The professionals don't give a crap about how the public rates their draft selections. They care about: "Is this football player going to contribute to our team". If the answer is yes: "What capacity is this football player going to contribute". "Do we see them as a starter?" "All-pro?" etc. "Are there other players who do it better or as good?"

Based on those evaluations, they rank players on a board from 1-50+ and select based on a combination of BPA and need. There is no board in their draft room that says: "This player is a 2nd round player, never select him higher".
Obviously and that is not what I am saying.
Reply With Quote
  #80  
Old 12-06-2012, 10:43 AM
Kemp17's Avatar
Kemp17 Kemp17 is offline
Green text is the worst
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Bitterroot Valley
Posts: 25,579
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by ShockTreatment View Post
That's not how the draft works. That's how the draft works in draftnik land.

The professionals don't give a crap about how the public rates their draft selections. They care about: "Is this football player going to contribute to our team". If the answer is yes: "What capacity is this football player going to contribute". "Do we see them as a starter?" "All-pro?" etc. "Are there other players who do it better or as good?"

Based on those evaluations, they rank players on a board from 1-50+ and select based on a combination of BPA and need. There is no board in their draft room that says: "This player is a 2nd round player, never select him higher".
Teams' drafting entities regularly refer to players as first, second, third etc. round talents. And while they don't have their boards constructed like the media and fans, they still have them ranked. So it's perfectly reasonable to assume that situations arise where a team says "we have 6 players on the board that we like about the same, so we can trade back 5 spots and still get one."
__________________

To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.
Reply With Quote
Reply

Bookmarks

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -7. The time now is 06:09 PM.


© 2018 Los Angeles Chargers. All Rights Reserved.